ID	766
Authors	ZIEGLER Zsolt
Title	Newcomb dilemma in development management
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Keywords	decision theory, development management, Newcomb dilemma, macroeconomics, causal decision theory, evidential decision theory
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Issue	2020/4
DOI	https://doi.org/10.22503/inftars.XX.2020.4.1
Abstract	Newcomb dilemmas show a discrepancy in our rational reasoning, as made clear by comparing Evidential Decision Theory with Causal Decision Theory. In this paper, I look at three versions of the dilemma: the original, highly technical and abstract one plus two more mundane cases. I also account for the general schema of the dilemma possibly appearing in macroeconomic situations. Ahmed (2014) aims to provide a solution for macroeconomic cases that opens room for forming a development management Newcomb dilemma – an imaginary case of electric motor competition between Toyota and Tesla. I argue that Ahmed’s solution may solve the macroeconomic Newcomb dilemma, but it cannot be applied to the development management dilemma. If I am right, similar Newcomb situations could be cropping up regularly in development management, leading to seemingly insoluble strategic decisions having to be made. This may create an inevitable pitfall for development management.
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Language	English
Pages	7-18
Column	Tanulmányok